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Lecture

ISGA Research Seminar: 'The Russo-Ukrainian War and Implications for Conventional Arms Control in Europe'

Date
Monday 25 April 2022
Time
Serie
ISGA Research Seminar Series 2022
Address
Wijnhaven
Turfmarkt 99
2511 DP The Hague
Room
Common room ISGA, and via Teams.

About this research seminar

The ongoing Russo-Ukraine War suggests two important military lessons for European security. First, a determined defense, even though outnumbered and outgunned, can impose significant costs in casualties and equipment losses on an attacker as well as delay their advance; and second, the Russian military is substantially weaker than pre-war data indicated. These two points have significant implications for the future of conventional arms control in Europe, which is currently moribund since Russia’s “suspension” of the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty in 2007. A future, similar treaty intended to decrease tensions and prevent an arms race along the EU/NATO and Russia contact points, especially in the Baltics, will need to consider mutual fears of surprise attack. Assessing the offense-defense balance through quantitative force and net assessments will be essential to formulating options for any future conventional arms control agreements in Europe. 

About the speaker

William Lippert is a PhD candidate focusing on European Arms Control. His dissertation focus is specifically entitled : 'Quantitative Conflict Outcome Models and Opportunities for Conventional Arms Control in Europe'. This means that he will identify and develop different models to conduct net assessments considering deterrence and the offense-defense balance of potential conflict parties in Europe and the implications for arms control of each model and the impact of variables on the offense-defense balance.

Or, more simply put, he will attempt to identify what impacts certain conventional arms control measures might have on the political-military adversarial relationship between Russia and the NATO/EU bloc, in terms of increasing stability, preserving peace, and reducing unnecessary arms expenditures (more funding for 'butter' and less for 'guns').

Discussant: Dr. Tom Buitelaar, Assistant Professor, ISGA

For whom?

The research seminars are open to all levels of seniority  - ranging from PhD candidates to senior professors in order to ensure a vibrant exchange and also feed-back opportunities for all. 

More information

For further information and the teams link, please contact Dr Lydie Cabane.

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