How realistic is a drone attack in the Netherlands?
Drones have rapidly become part of everyday life. They are used by hobbyists, businesses, the police and the armed forces alike. At the same time, concerns are growing that the same technology could also be exploited by malicious actors. Researcher and PhD candidate Stijn Willem van ’t Land investigated the issue.
In the Middle East and Mexico, drones are already being used extensively in attacks, and public debate regularly raises the prospect of a possible attack targeting a politician, an event, or critical infrastructure. But how realistic is such a scenario in the Netherlands and the wider West? Commissioned by the Knowledge Centre Close Protection and Surveillance (Dutch: Bewaken en Beveiligen), Stijn Willem van ’t Land examined the actual use of drones by terrorists, criminals, lone actors and state actors.
How serious is the actual threat of a drone attack?
The research shows that, for the time being, the threat remains limited. Between 2010 and 2025, only 34 incidents were identified in which drones played a role in an attack or attempted attack.
Remarkably, more than half of the attack plots never progress to execution. Even when plans are carried out, some still fail due to technical errors by the operator. In addition, a large number of attack plots are foiled through intervention by the security services or police.
Nevertheless, an increase has become visible in recent years. In both 2024 and 2025, for example, eight incidents per year were recorded, significantly more than in previous years. The spectre of drone attacks is therefore not unfounded, but the successful deployment of a drone — let alone one resulting in fatalities — remains rare to date.
Why are drone attacks rare?
At first glance, drones offer several advantages to malicious actors. They allow attacks to be carried out remotely, they can circumvent security measures, and a drone attack can have a major societal impact. Drones are also becoming increasingly easy to operate.
Nevertheless, carrying out an attack with a drone requires extensive knowledge of explosives, delivery and detonation mechanisms, and operational planning. In addition, access to explosives or precursors is likely to form a bottleneck. In many Western countries, these materials are tightly regulated, making it difficult to obtain a viable explosive device for a drone attack.
The appeal of alternative methods also appears to play an important role. For many actors, more traditional approaches for carrying out an attack are easier to execute than a drone attack, think of firearms, vehicles or directly placed explosives.
Which trends can be identified?
Although drone attacks are currently rare, the research report does reveal patterns in the way drones are used in attacks. Lone actors and terrorist organisations, in particular, appear to be involved in these types of incidents. Criminal organisations and state actors played only a limited role during the period studied.
Drones are mainly used against heavily protected targets or individuals, as they can bypass security measures. A military base or a politician may therefore still be vulnerable. Individuals appear to be the primary target, partly because commercial drones are only capable of carrying relatively small explosive payloads.
Many perpetrators are inspired by jihadist ideology and exchange ideas online about the use of drones. Notably, several suspects have a technical or cybersecurity background, suggesting that drone attacks require specialised knowledge. These and other patterns are analysed in depth in the research report 'Between possibility and reality' (in Dutch).
Will drone attacks become more common in the future?
In recent conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine, drones have been deployed on a large scale. Images of successful attacks circulate worldwide and inspire potential attackers. In addition, newer drones are easier to operate, offer ever greater range, and are easier to modify. The number of people gaining experience with drones, professionally or as a hobby, is also growing.
These developments make their use more likely, but this does not mean that drone attacks will inevitably become a preferred tool or method for malicious actors. At the same time, without being alarmist, it is becoming increasingly plausible that the factors outlined above could eventually lead to a successful drone attack, as recently occurred in Russia, where a businessman was killed using an FPV drone.
For that reason, good preparation is essential: continued investment in intelligence capabilities, restricting access to explosives, and further developing counter-drone technology. Governments must also be prepared for the societal impact of a drone attack, especially when footage of an attack spreads rapidly via social media. Technology is becoming more accessible, and knowledge about the use of drones is spreading more widely. Although drone attacks remain rare for now, these developments underscore the importance of maintaining vigilance and preparedness.