‘Polish presidential election will be important for the country’s position on the international stage’
Poland votes for a new president in a first round of elections on Sunday. Lecturer Jan Meijer points out: ‘The result will have a lot of impact on Donald Tusk's liberal government and its plans for reforms.’
What exactly is at stake for the Polish people in these elections?
'The presidential elections are held every five years. The position is basically ceremonial, but the president can block bills and represent the country at certain international events. This plays an important role within Poland, where power has shifted back and forth between the right-wing PiS party and the centre-right Civic Platform party over the past 15 years. Donald Tusk's liberal government has tried to push through rule-of-law changes since taking office in 2023, but these have been structurally blocked by the current president, the conservative Duda. The efforts also concern bills on abortion and LGBT rights. If the next president comes from the same camp as Tusk, that could greatly increase the viability of bills from within the government. And in the long run, that in turn could have an effect on the population and the Polish narrative as a country moving in a more conservative or rather a more liberal path. Turnout in these elections could be quite high; in the previous elections it was around 68%, which is high by Polish standards.'
How does the population currently feel about a more progressive direction?
'That’s hard to say as the Polish population is traditionally strongly divided. But Tusk has recently placed less and less emphasis on rule-of-law reforms and presented himself more as a strong leader with critical views on key issues such as migration. I think that has earned him wider support. As a result, liberal presidential candidate Rafal Trzaskowski is slightly ahead in the polls, although the gap with conservative candidate Nawrocki has narrowed. That is because Trzaskowski is a rather ‘soft’ politician who did not come across very strongly in the last debates. On the other hand, Nawrocki looks to be embroiled in another big scandal (about concealing the ownership of a second flat, ed.). So it will be exciting next Sunday; the outcome is hard to predict. I don't expect a final decision in this first round, there are still too many other candidates competing who will take percentages away from the two main candidates. I think the second round, in June, will be decisive.’
What implications could the result have for Europe?
'Rule-of-law reforms were more important for the European Union around 2023, because at that time Poland did not meet all EU membership requirements, causing European subsidies to be suspendded. But the war in Ukraine and Trump's election have put those issues on the back burner and European subsidies have since been resumed. So which president is chosen will mainly be relevant to the position Poland takes on the international stage. Trzaskowski has expressed support for Ukraine, whereas Nawrocki is much more in line with Trump. A telling symbol of this is that Trzaskowski is the only candidate who has met and had his picture taken with Zelenski and, while Nawrocki is the only candidate who has visited Donald Trump in the White House and had his picture taken with him.'
Will you watching next Sunday?
'I think I'll follow live results online, but the real denouement will be in June. And I'll definitely be following that!'
About Jan Meijer
Jan Meijer is a lecturer at the Institute of Political Science. He previously conducted research on populist Euroscepticism in the Polish political landscape and lived in Kraków for a year while writing his master's thesis.