The trends of tomorrow shape the choices of today
The future cannot be predicted, but it can be anticipated, according to strategic analyst Gerben Bakker. He helps security professionals analyse trends and data to gain a better understanding of societal threats, enabling them to take action today to safeguard the security of tomorrow.
Every day, Bakker examines how social, technological and geopolitical dynamics affect the security of the Netherlands. As co-developer of the programme Strategy and a Resilient Rule of Law (in Ducth), he helps security professionals interpret signals and trends and translate that knowledge into strategic action.
The programme is called ‘Strategy and a Resilient Rule of Law’. What does the strategic element involve?
‘Strategic thinking is about developing an informed perspective for action. That is different from simply acquiring academic knowledge. In this programme, the focus is on understanding future developments based on signals and exploring possible scenarios. This allows you to sharpen your actions in the present and better anticipate the future, which ultimatley makes us more resilient.
If we gain a better understanding of, for example, the motives of the Eritrean regime and the pressures that may affect that region in the future, we can better understand how it influences the Eritrean diaspora in the Netherlands and how outbreaks of violence may arise here.’
How do you gain insight into future developments?
'That is challenging, but data allows us to identify the trends of tomorrow and make informed choices in the present. By using a tool called Horizonscan we can help the police determine which trends may pose a threat to the rule of law. Many other security professionals are also looking for ways to gain a more accurate understanding of the developments coming our way.
We also use monitoring tools to assess public sentiment and track how threats are evolving within Dutch society.'
'Many professionals spend most of their time dealing with immediate issues.' - Gerben Bakker
Why is strategic action particularly important for security professionals?
‘Many professionals spend most of their time dealing with immediate issues. As a result, they have little opportunity to think about the future and how they should prepare for it. Data helps, but it is ultimately the interpretation of the data that matters. What do these threats mean for the stability of our country or for the security responsibilities of your own organisation?
For example, we follow interactions between countries through data from the United Nations, and we see autocratic states increasingly forming power blocs. This affects us because, as part of the democratic world, we are more vulnerable to cyberattacks and dependent on other countries for critical raw materials. We teach participants to translate these major developments into their own local context. Should we invest more in cyber capabilities? Are we adequately prepared for severe disruptions to pharmaceutical supply chains?
We also examine the risk of a polycrisis: a crisis in which multiple threats reinforce one another, such as heatwaves, wars and shortages. This can have major consequences for the resilience of the rule of law. Consider a situation in which deep political distrust coincides with migration flows caused by wildfires in the Sahel, while a domestic environmental disaster fuels public dissatisfaction and a hostile state further inflames tensions through disinformation. That is why it is so important to have security professionals who can view challenges through a strategic lens and ensure that we do not rely solely on short-term responses.’
Security professionals often work with organisations that have different interests and priorities. How do you deal with that?
‘Organising security is now almost impossible without public-private cooperation. Take AI, both law enforcement agencies and criminals make use of it. You need to understand who is using these technologies and how, and for that you depend on organisations beyond your own. Another challenge is that Europe has less and less control over what happens online. How can we safeguard our digital sovereignty and ensure that our security information stays ahead of developments rather than lagging behind them?
The same applies to investigations within the security sector. Consider open-source intelligence initiatives such as Bellingcat, whose information can be extremely valuable. At the same time, institutions such as the Public Prosecution Service or the police sometimes struggle to keep pace with certain developments, even though doing so is essential.’
Besides AI, what do you see as the most important developments we should be paying attention to?
‘Ideological developments around the world. We are seeing a growing number of anti-liberal and anti-democratic ideas emerge, gradually eroding support for the democratic model. Examples include Russian propaganda, Christian anti-woke movements in the United States, or entrepreneurs such as Elon Musk and Peter Thiel who believe in a technologically driven vision of society.
These are developments we need to monitor carefully because they affect the foundations of our society. We hope to teach participants how to move from abstract concepts to concrete analysis and consider what these developments could mean for the security of tomorrow.’
The programme
Strategy and a Resilient Rule of Law (taught in Dutch) starts in September 2026 and offers professionals the opportunity to step back from day-to-day practice, place developments in a broader context and strengthen their ability to think strategically about the future.
Meer information (in Dutch)