Who is responsible for limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees?
Even if industry rapidly becomes more sustainable, households will still need to change their lifestyles to meet climate targets. Industrial ecologist Stephanie Cap warns that households cannot do this alone: businesses and governments must create the right conditions to make these lifestyle changes possible.
Using scientific models, Cap has developed various scenarios for 2030 and 2050, mapping out what is needed to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and keep global warming within 1.5 degrees, the threshold below which climate change remains harmful but still manageable. One thing is certain, she says: ‘Making industry more sustainable is not enough on its own to stay within 1.5 degrees, and neither is making households more sustainable. We really need both.’
What can we do?
For her research, Cap analysed five European countries: Germany, Spain, Latvia, Hungary and Sweden. Each has a different starting point in terms of renewable energy infrastructure, dependence on fossil fuels, household income and, to some extent, policy. Using scenario models based on the EXIOBASE database, she mapped the carbon footprint of households. ‘If you buy vegetables, a laptop or electricity, the model looks at all the production factors involved in producing that product. For one euro’s worth of food products or train travel, for example, I can calculate how many greenhouse gases were emitted in the process.’
With these models, Cap set out to answer a key question: what happens to greenhouse gas emissions if households change their consumption patterns? To find out, she developed various ‘portfolios’ of measures and changes. Reducing the use of cars with internal combustion engines, phasing out fossil-fuel heating and switching to plant-based diets consistently delivered the largest emission reductions. Her scenarios also assumed that industry would become far more sustainable.
And so, is the 1.5-degree target achievable? In the scenarios for 2030, it is theoretically possible, but only if a large share of the population adopts a wide range of lifestyle changes. In countries with relatively high emissions, at least 87% of the population would need to take part; in Spain and Hungary, that share is lower, at around 50 to 60%. The picture for 2050 is even more challenging: Germany, Latvia and Sweden fail to meet the 1.5-degree target. Only Spain and Hungary can theoretically achieve it, and only if high-impact measures are implemented almost in full.
Cap feels it is important to note the exploratory scenarios are based on a 2015 baseline and on decarbonisation pathways developed several years ago. However, she states, this does not take away from the implications about the extent of lifestyle change and the extensive decarbonisation needed.
Conditions for change
A figure as high as 87% immediately raises the question of whether people are actually willing and able to make these changes. Cap stresses that this is not simply a matter of willingness. Relying less on the car, for instance, is difficult without good public transport or working hours that make this a realistic option. Circumstances play an equally important role in other choices. According to Cap, it is therefore not only households that need to change: businesses and governments must also create the conditions that make such choices possible.
A message for Brussels
Cap concludes that, even with rapid industrial decarbonisation, major changes in household consumption are still needed. With these findings, she hopes to renew the sense of urgency among EU policymakers. In short, there needs to be a stronger push for emission-free heating, transport and individual lifestyle changes.
She sees a powerful message in what might seem like discouraging results: ‘I understand that it can feel overwhelming when you look at the gap between where we are now and where we need to be. But individual changes are an essential part of staying below 1.5 degrees. I hope people feel empowered to make changes, knowing that they really can make a difference.’
PhD defences by Leiden University researchers can be followed live online. On Thursday 1 October, from 16.00 to 17.00, Stephanie Cap will defend her PhD dissertation, Everything Must Change: 1.5°C decarbonisation scenarios across industries and households.