Lecture
Words and Warning Messages: Communicating Deterrence in Theory and Practice
- Dr. Jeffrey Michaels (Institut Barcelona d’Estudis Internacionals)
- Date
- Friday 19 April 2024
- Time
- Address
-
Matthias de Vrieshof
Matthias de Vrieshof 1-4
2311 BZ Leiden - Room
- 2.02
Abstract
In the leadup to Russia's 24 February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, many private and public attempts were made to warn the Russian leadership not to take this action. All these failed. Thereafter, deterring Russian use of WMD in Ukraine was prioritized, and at some future point following a ceasefire, deterring renewed large-scale aggression will be a challenge. In their attempts to deter Russia, what types of consequences are Western leaders publicly threatening to impose and are they communicating these effectively?
The ability to effectively communicate threats constitutes one of the two principal challenges of crafting a deterrence strategy, the other being a determination of what consequences to threaten in the first place. However, when seeking to deter some unwanted action, policymakers usually focus on the latter and ignore the former, with the result that otherwise effective threats are undermined by ineffective communication. Likewise, deterrence theorists, whilst recognizing the importance of communications have nevertheless ignored investigating the language and packaging of deterrence threats.
This talk will provide both a conceptual and historical overview of the problem, highlight best practices for policymakers to incorporate in their design of deterrence threats in the future, and identify failed practices they should avoid repeating.
About the speaker
Dr. Jeffrey Michaels is the IEN Senior Fellow in American Foreign Policy and International Security at the Institut Barcelona d’Estudis Internacionals (IBEI). Formerly he was a Senior Lecturer in Defence Studies at King’s College London. He has also served as an official with NATO and the US Defense Department, and was the 2023-2024 Senior Eisenhower Defense Fellow at the NATO Defense College in Rome.
His research has been published in The European Journal of International Security, The Journal of Cold War Studies, Presidential Studies Quarterly, The Journal of Strategic Studies, Political Science Quarterly, International Politics Reviews, Parameters, the RUSI Journal, Contemporary Security Policy and Orbis. He is the co-author, with Sir Lawrence Freedman, of The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy (4th Edition) and co-editor, with Tim Sweijs, of Beyond Ukraine: Debating the Future of War.