Lecture
Geopolitical Resource Dependence: U.S.-China Rivalry and Firm Import Strategies
- Date
- Tuesday 2 June 2026
- Time
- Serie
- Diplomacy and Global Affairs Research Seminar Series 2026
- Address
-
Wijnhaven
Turfmarkt 99
2511 DP The Hague - Room
- 3.12 A/B
Registration
Participation is free, but registration is required. Please note: this is an English-language event.
Apply hereAbout the event
We develop a geopolitical resource dependence theory (GRDT) to explain how U.S. firms adjust cross-border import strategies as source countries shift their geopolitical alignment. Building on resource dependence theory, GRDT treats firms’ reliance on foreign suppliers as shaped jointly by interstate alignments and alliances, the configuration of firms’ sourcing portfolios across countries and products, and their capacity to implement changes in import sourcing. We test GRDT using a 2007–2023 panel of more than 10 million firm–country–product–year observations on approximately 139,000 U.S. importers, constructed using U.S. customs transaction records. Controlling for tariffs and other observable country-year economic factors, high‑dimensional fixed‑effects models demonstrate that U.S. importers increase sourcing from exporting countries that signal increasing public disapproval of China’s leadership, with this response attenuated for imports from formal U.S. security allies. A 10-percentage point increase in exporter-country China disapproval is associated with a nearly 3% increase in imports the following year. Firm responses to changes in exporting countries’ geopolitical alignment are stronger for larger and more diversified firms, and weaker when the scope for adjustment is low due to highly concentrated sourcing, complex and knowledge-intensive supply chains, or a limited number of viable exporter countries for a given product. The study extends resource dependence theory into the geopolitical domain and informs debates on decoupling, friend‑shoring, and organizational adaptation under geoeconomic fragmentation.
About the speaker
Harald Puhr is an Assistant Professor of International Business at the Amsterdam Business School, University of Amsterdam. In addition, he is the Project Coordinator of the EU HORIZON VALPOP project and a Research Fellow at the Wharton Impact, Value, and Sustainable Business Initiative. His research examines how multinational firms navigate socio-political risk, geopolitical tensions, and firm–state relations, and how artificial intelligence and data-driven approaches can augment strategic decision-making in complex global markets. A central stream of his work leverages large-scale data, including Google Trends, to capture grassroots socio-political risk, assess geopolitical shocks, and study firms’ internationalization, resilience, and decoupling strategies. He has published in leading International Business journals such as the Journal of World Business and the Global Strategy Journal, and his research has received multiple awards, including the EIBA GSJ Global Strategy Research Prize and the AOM HKUST Best Paper in Global Strategy award.
Diplomacy and Global Affairs (DGA) Research Seminar
The Diplomacy and Global Affairs (DGA) Research Seminar is a series launched by the Research Group on Diplomacy and Global Affairs at the Institute of Security and Global Affairs. The seminars of internationally acknowledged guest researchers and faculty members deal with current research topics in diplomacy, international relations, global affairs, and political economy broadly conceived and target a broad audience through their interdisciplinary focus.
If you have any questions, please contact Arash Pourebrahimi.