The people who lose out in the climate transition
With the climate transition in full swing, polluting industries must adapt and shift to more sustainable production methods. Workers in this sector must find new occupations. Not everyone will succeed. Economist Lars van Doorn urges us not to overlook this group.
PFAS has been traced in Dordrecht's drinking water and graphite rain has fallen in IJmuiden. These are stark reminders of the lasting impact of polluting industries in the Netherlands. But if these production plants were to stop using coal (Tata Steel in IJmuiden) or stop using PFAS (Chemours in Dordrecht) – a development climate activists would applaud and which would receive broad support across society – not everyone would welcome it.
'A job can provide a certain social status and determine a person’s identity'
Lars van Doorn explains: 'Companies in polluting industries are under pressure to meet climate goals which may well lead to the loss of certain jobs. Some people who are laid off might say: no worries – if the factory closes, I’ll find work somewhere else. But these layoffs can have a more major impact on other people with very specific skills that are only needed for jobs in polluting industries.'
Van Doorn conducted his PhD research on the consequences of structural economic changes, such as the climate transition on the labour market. One outcome of his research is that people who work in polluting industries – people with so-called 'brown jobs’– are less likely to support the climate transition if it makes it harder for them to find new employment. 'For example, if these workers hear on the news that the government plans to close factories due to new climate policies, they can grow seriously concerned about their job prospects and income – which will undermine their support for this policy,' says the researcher.
'Concerns about their job prospects and income can be strong enough to undermine support for climate policy'
Social status
For many people, a job is more than just a way to earn a living. 'It can also provide a certain social status and determine a person’s identity,' says Van Doorn. He refers to the Dutch documentary series ‘STAAL’ (Steel in Dutch), which shows that the Tata Steel factory plays a crucial role in the lives of some of the local residents, people who have lived and worked there for years, even generations. 'If they were to lose their job, they’d lose much more than just their income. Besides, there’s a difference between merely having a job, and whether that job also gives you a sense of security and appreciation.'
Skills
Van Doorn highlights the potential unrest among a group of people with no transferable skills, such as factory production workers. 'We need to realise that even if certain measures improve the prosperity of society as a whole, there are also people who can lose out. If that group gets left behind, Van Doorn believes the success of the climate transition will be threatened.
At present, these people are not normally left to fend for themselves. In the event of mass layoffs, companies need to support those affected – for example, by offering training. ‘The research I conducted with Professor Olaf van Vliet shows that investing in skills can pay off, so that’s something that should definitely continue’, says the researcher. ‘But it doesn’t stop there. There need to be jobs available for these people. If that’s not the case, because of a downturn in the economy for instance, it can create a breeding ground for discontent.’
In that respect, his research couldn’t be more timely. Van Doorn: 'We’re currently experiencing great economic uncertainty, partly caused by the high import tariffs introduced by President Trump. So, it’s important in these difficult times to understand how we can help people who don’t yet have the right skills, but who are working in jobs that may soon disappear.' The government needs to 'start thinking about these challenges now'.
This research was funded by Instituut Gak.
Rectification
A previous version of this article stated that it was raining graphite in IJmuiden. We have adjusted the text after receiving feedback from the Central Works Council at Tata Steel Nederland B.V. that no graphite rain has fallen since 2019.